election_tracker.utf8.md

Live Results

As of 2:05 PM, 275 voters in 33 wards have shared their voter number. I estimate that 221,933 people have voted in person across the city (95% Confidence Interval: 181,799 - 235,813). In addition, more than 346,196 mail-in ballots have already been returned*, and 89,200 are still outstanding.

NOTE: There is a lag in the returned mail-ins showing up in the data. Some mail-ins that have already arrived are probably not included in the above count. In addition, all ballots postmarked today that arrive by 11/6 will be counted, as long as the Supreme Court does not interfere.

Maps

I use historic correlations among divisions’ turnout to estimate turnout in the divisions with no data yet. I simultaneously estimate (1) the overall city-wide turnout, (2) divisions’ over-/under-performance, and (3) the city-wide time pattern of voting. See the Methodology.

Total Turnout (In-Person + Mail-In)

Total Turnout (In-Person + Mail-In) vs 2016

In-Person Turnout

Mail-In Requests

Mail-In Ballots Returned

Raw Responses (for debugging)

Submissions

Data Tables

For those of you who like tables with numbers.

**Estimated Turnout by Ward**

ward	time_of_day	turnout	turnout_p025	turnout_p975

01	2:05 PM	3164	c(`2.5%` = 2830)	c(`97.5%` = 3476)
02	2:05 PM	4940	c(`2.5%` = 4378)	c(`97.5%` = 5475)
03	2:05 PM	2985	c(`2.5%` = 2386)	c(`97.5%` = 3382)
04	2:05 PM	2952	c(`2.5%` = 2235)	c(`97.5%` = 3346)
05	2:05 PM	7144	c(`2.5%` = 6372)	c(`97.5%` = 8024)
06	2:05 PM	1991	c(`2.5%` = 1594)	c(`97.5%` = 2174)
07	2:05 PM	1832	c(`2.5%` = 1210)	c(`97.5%` = 2147)
08	2:05 PM	6637	c(`2.5%` = 5964)	c(`97.5%` = 7559)
09	2:05 PM	3380	c(`2.5%` = 2854)	c(`97.5%` = 3921)
10	2:05 PM	4371	c(`2.5%` = 3331)	c(`97.5%` = 4948)
11	2:05 PM	1899	c(`2.5%` = 1422)	c(`97.5%` = 2216)
12	2:05 PM	3252	c(`2.5%` = 2576)	c(`97.5%` = 3614)
13	2:05 PM	2939	c(`2.5%` = 2333)	c(`97.5%` = 3335)
14	2:05 PM	1269	c(`2.5%` = 1032)	c(`97.5%` = 1380)
15	2:05 PM	3562	c(`2.5%` = 3102)	c(`97.5%` = 3990)
16	2:05 PM	1573	c(`2.5%` = 1146)	c(`97.5%` = 1852)
17	2:05 PM	3610	c(`2.5%` = 2896)	c(`97.5%` = 4095)
18	2:05 PM	3030	c(`2.5%` = 2524)	c(`97.5%` = 3388)
19	2:05 PM	1487	c(`2.5%` = 1053)	c(`97.5%` = 1655)
20	2:05 PM	1369	c(`2.5%` = 1090)	c(`97.5%` = 1538)
21	2:05 PM	7874	c(`2.5%` = 6842)	c(`97.5%` = 8662)
22	2:05 PM	4628	c(`2.5%` = 3572)	c(`97.5%` = 5310)
23	2:05 PM	2594	c(`2.5%` = 2088)	c(`97.5%` = 2826)
24	2:05 PM	2159	c(`2.5%` = 1780)	c(`97.5%` = 2402)
25	2:05 PM	2061	c(`2.5%` = 1567)	c(`97.5%` = 2417)
26	2:05 PM	3074	c(`2.5%` = 2519)	c(`97.5%` = 3298)
27	2:05 PM	3337	c(`2.5%` = 2191)	c(`97.5%` = 4549)
28	2:05 PM	1687	c(`2.5%` = 1211)	c(`97.5%` = 2001)
29	2:05 PM	1666	c(`2.5%` = 1399)	c(`97.5%` = 1818)
30	2:05 PM	3154	c(`2.5%` = 2624)	c(`97.5%` = 3563)
31	2:05 PM	2651	c(`2.5%` = 2123)	c(`97.5%` = 3010)
32	2:05 PM	2741	c(`2.5%` = 2023)	c(`97.5%` = 3090)
33	2:05 PM	2124	c(`2.5%` = 1453)	c(`97.5%` = 2496)
34	2:05 PM	6097	c(`2.5%` = 4959)	c(`97.5%` = 6661)
35	2:05 PM	3941	c(`2.5%` = 3132)	c(`97.5%` = 4360)
36	2:05 PM	4949	c(`2.5%` = 4129)	c(`97.5%` = 5281)
37	2:05 PM	1768	c(`2.5%` = 1299)	c(`97.5%` = 2037)
38	2:05 PM	2992	c(`2.5%` = 2587)	c(`97.5%` = 3229)
39	2:05 PM	5879	c(`2.5%` = 5125)	c(`97.5%` = 6405)
40	2:05 PM	6138	c(`2.5%` = 4799)	c(`97.5%` = 6557)
41	2:05 PM	2379	c(`2.5%` = 1818)	c(`97.5%` = 2713)
42	2:05 PM	3031	c(`2.5%` = 2321)	c(`97.5%` = 3336)
43	2:05 PM	2405	c(`2.5%` = 1754)	c(`97.5%` = 2666)
44	2:05 PM	1981	c(`2.5%` = 1494)	c(`97.5%` = 2240)
45	2:05 PM	2624	c(`2.5%` = 2048)	c(`97.5%` = 3018)
46	2:05 PM	3749	c(`2.5%` = 3139)	c(`97.5%` = 4188)
47	2:05 PM	1166	c(`2.5%` = 934)	c(`97.5%` = 1244)
48	2:05 PM	2710	c(`2.5%` = 2185)	c(`97.5%` = 2911)
49	2:05 PM	3556	c(`2.5%` = 2761)	c(`97.5%` = 3862)
50	2:05 PM	5129	c(`2.5%` = 3915)	c(`97.5%` = 5922)
51	2:05 PM	3209	c(`2.5%` = 2573)	c(`97.5%` = 3620)
52	2:05 PM	4011	c(`2.5%` = 3205)	c(`97.5%` = 4576)
53	2:05 PM	2658	c(`2.5%` = 2080)	c(`97.5%` = 2978)
54	2:05 PM	1867	c(`2.5%` = 1337)	c(`97.5%` = 2233)
55	2:05 PM	3090	c(`2.5%` = 2360)	c(`97.5%` = 3557)
56	2:05 PM	4496	c(`2.5%` = 3571)	c(`97.5%` = 5087)
57	2:05 PM	3896	c(`2.5%` = 3199)	c(`97.5%` = 4311)
58	2:05 PM	6434	c(`2.5%` = 5163)	c(`97.5%` = 7277)
59	2:05 PM	3463	c(`2.5%` = 2777)	c(`97.5%` = 3797)
60	2:05 PM	2763	c(`2.5%` = 2233)	c(`97.5%` = 3077)
61	2:05 PM	4096	c(`2.5%` = 3136)	c(`97.5%` = 4363)
62	2:05 PM	2847	c(`2.5%` = 2126)	c(`97.5%` = 3273)
63	2:05 PM	3752	c(`2.5%` = 3194)	c(`97.5%` = 4092)
64	2:05 PM	2118	c(`2.5%` = 1675)	c(`97.5%` = 2396)
65	2:05 PM	3114	c(`2.5%` = 2590)	c(`97.5%` = 3403)
66	2:05 PM	6488	c(`2.5%` = 5374)	c(`97.5%` = 7100)

Raw Submissions

**Submitted Data**

Time of Vote	Precinct	Voter Number

7:10 AM	5107	2
7:41 AM	0537	24
7:42 AM	0501	14
7:43 AM	0828	33
7:03 AM	2714	2
7:40 AM	1508	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:25 AM	0214	16
7:56 AM	3636	33
7:13 AM	0218	9
8:07 AM	4603	27
8:16 AM	0218	60
8:18 AM	0222	68
8:10 AM	1810	36
8:20 AM	3635	57
8:30 AM	3110	55
8:32 AM	0532	69
8:30 AM	2707	45
8:32 AM	2702	48
8:15 AM	3901	52
8:15 AM	3640	64
8:38 AM	3638	55
8:38 AM	3637	31
8:42 AM	0525	64
8:40 AM	0501	36
7:30 AM	0202	28
8:40 AM	0537	56
8:12 AM	4616	41
8:35 AM	3909	65
8:43 AM	0517	69
8:49 AM	0834	73
8:49 AM	0206	69
8:50 AM	0828	77
8:07 AM	0801	40
7:30 AM	3640	31
7:30 AM	3104	29
8:50 AM	0213	25
8:40 AM	2717	56
8:45 AM	2101	47
8:25 AM	3945	52
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
9:02 AM	1503	92
7:15 AM	0902	12
8:40 AM	2717	56
7:01 AM	0807	13
9:09 AM	4701	73
8:50 AM	0213	25
9:10 AM	1514	81
7:55 AM	1517	30
9:00 AM	3914	40
8:00 AM	5702	60
8:30 AM	2105	91
8:30 AM	2105	91
9:15 AM	2714	51
8:15 AM	2605	56
9:20 AM	3637	100
9:20 AM	3638	79
8:30 AM	0521	92
9:20 AM	0532	112
9:15 AM	1802	73
9:24 AM	2911	62
9:03 AM	0229	95
9:23 AM	0812	138
8:50 AM	0828	77
9:00 AM	3107	100
9:15 AM	3639	86
9:15 AM	0120	76
9:30 AM	0308	109
9:30 AM	0807	98
9:25 AM	3610	84
9:34 AM	0818	50
9:34 AM	0818	50
9:35 AM	0817	107
8:40 AM	1514	68
8:00 AM	0106	69
8:40 AM	1514	68
9:38 AM	6008	49
9:30 AM	3636	108
7:15 AM	0114	9
9:46 AM	3111	104
9:47 AM	0204	72
9:50 AM	0505	92
9:55 AM	0528	148
9:45 AM	0224	110
9:45 AM	0224	109
7:45 AM	0517	35
9:58 AM	3636	120
9:49 AM	2212	74
8:00 AM	0817	100
10:05 AM	1503	129
10:02 AM	0517	135
8:15 AM	3516	56
7:20 AM	2217	17
8:15 AM	3516	56
7:40 AM	2105	45
10:00 AM	0110	97
9:40 AM	0222	97
10:00 AM	2622	82
10:03 AM	3006	101
8:15 AM	2619	77
10:02 AM	0835	100
10:18 AM	3104	156
10:20 AM	4701	114
7:45 AM	0516	41
10:18 AM	0515	420
8:28 AM	0516	70
9:50 AM	0505	92
10:15 AM	3641	78
9:50 AM	0505	92
10:29 AM	0509	188
10:30 AM	1513	95
8:00 AM	2113	13
10:39 AM	0537	108
10:40 AM	0501	75
10:15 AM	3115	144
10:10 AM	4603	60
9:45 AM	1517	101
10:40 AM	0206	115
10:42 AM	0505	117
10:44 AM	0834	93
9:30 AM	0807	98
10:45 AM	0807	115
10:45 AM	1503	147
10:45 AM	0309	129
10:40 AM	3629	76
10:52 AM	1717	90
10:52 AM	1717	90
7:30 AM	1802	38
10:50 AM	2706	156
10:45 AM	2713	96
10:02 AM	4622	131
11:00 AM	2707	86
11:10 AM	3113	101
8:30 AM	0201	103
8:40 AM	0824	57
11:07 AM	6008	67
8:00 AM	4601	37
11:00 AM	2208	91
9:00 AM	0822	1
11:00 AM	2101	131
10:00 AM	0101	79
10:00 AM	0102	90
10:00 AM	0103	136
10:00 AM	0104	92
10:00 AM	0105	45
10:00 AM	0106	93
10:00 AM	0107	40
10:00 AM	0108	89
10:00 AM	0109	83
10:00 AM	0110	104
10:00 AM	0111	86
10:00 AM	0112	69
10:00 AM	0113	122
10:00 AM	0114	85
10:00 AM	0115	139
10:00 AM	0116	68
10:00 AM	0117	79
10:00 AM	0118	121
10:00 AM	0119	75
10:00 AM	0120	106
10:00 AM	0121	130
11:17 AM	3943	119
11:00 AM	1811	150
11:18 AM	4701	135
11:00 AM	3103	5
11:15 AM	0526	175
11:00 AM	5904	142
8:30 AM	0504	105
11:22 AM	1503	156
9:02 AM	0120	63
8:10 AM	0819	60
11:29 AM	0213	47
9:15 AM	0904	69
11:30 AM	3914	140
11:30 AM	4920	110
10:00 AM	3945	156
11:00 AM	0102	111
11:00 AM	0108	105
11:00 AM	0109	89
11:00 AM	0107	54
11:30 AM	0833	124
11:00 AM	0104	120
7:50 AM	4622	31
11:00 AM	0105	47
11:30 AM	1810	140
11:39 AM	0834	106
11:32 AM	0116	99
11:43 AM	0537	122
11:43 AM	0501	99
11:45 AM	2702	88
11:40 AM	4808	118
11:53 AM	0528	194
11:45 AM	1815	121
11:45 AM	1816	192
11:45 AM	1817	193
11:45 AM	0217	111
11:50 AM	3610	112
11:50 AM	0217	112
12:00 PM	3637	153
12:00 PM	3638	118
9:40 AM	0218	88
12:05 PM	0110	127
9:20 AM	0803	123
9:22 AM	0803	125
11:00 AM	0209	104
7:22 AM	0506	9
12:01 PM	0101	96
12:01 PM	0103	164
12:00 PM	2125	127
12:01 PM	0107	69
12:01 PM	0110	127
12:01 PM	0114	128
12:01 PM	0115	191
12:01 PM	0117	175
12:01 PM	0119	166
12:15 PM	1503	175
12:01 PM	0121	160
10:00 AM	2702	65
12:15 PM	4903	216
7:01 AM	1511	17
12:02 PM	0526	182
12:29 PM	3103	175
12:29 PM	3113	151
10:47 AM	1507	1
12:38 PM	1716	80
11:00 AM	6522	121
12:38 PM	0528	208
12:38 PM	0528	208
11:00 AM	0120	127
12:23 PM	6008	80
7:40 AM	6509	22
8:00 AM	4618	32
12:50 PM	0525	121
12:02 PM	0831	123
12:30 PM	3007	161
12:30 PM	5217	120
12:55 PM	4002	146
7:25 AM	0532	35
12:40 PM	0529	58
1:04 PM	1902	128
1:05 PM	1903	72
1:05 PM	1904	81
1:02 PM	2702	100
1:12 PM	0834	113
8:20 AM	0810	66
12:29 PM	3113	151
1:00 PM	3609	112
7:01 AM	2122	20
1:20 PM	1514	117
1:25 PM	3006	141
1:30 PM	3914	175
1:29 PM	4320	120
1:30 PM	0517	194
11:10 AM	3105	1
1:30 PM	2701	119
7:45 AM	4616	34
9:15 AM	4125	74
1:43 PM	1717	115
1:43 PM	0537	130
1:45 PM	0817	166
8:30 AM	2605	76
1:43 PM	0501	133
1:45 PM	0818	88
1:43 PM	1717	115
10:40 AM	1510	121
1:45 PM	1810	188
1:48 PM	3943	160
1:51 PM	3637	170
1:52 PM	3638	137
1:45 PM	1817	238
2:00 PM	3103	194
9:00 AM	2719	1
2:05 PM	4701	166

Download the csvs: - Raw Submissions - Division Predictions

Live 2020 Election Turnout Tracker